Since many countries have begun to implement plans similar to PLAN-B the site has been redesigned and moved to https://endco19.com/index.html suggesting prevention measures and better ways to go back to normal.
Chicken Little in 2020
Have we just experienced the biggest mistake in History?
We accept substantial death tolls of young productive people from disease, violence, vehicle accidents and other causes.
Dramatically mention "plague", and we act irrationally destroying our economies and billions of lives based on unproven data and procedures.
I don't get it, hence this website.
Dateline 19 April 2020. Newly published literature shows COVID-19 much more widespread than thought, and possibly NO MORE DEADLY THAN FLU, a new Stanford study suggests.
What the study shows is that the publicised mortality rate was on testing probable COVID-19 infections. If the tests had been widespread, i.e. random, the calculated mortality rate would have been much lower than published. Many people with COVID-19 have had symptoms so mild, so they didn't seek medical treatment, were never tested, and recovered rather quickly.
"The study used an antibody blood test to estimate how many had been infected with Covid-19 in the past. Infection rates to date were based on testing for the virus' genetic material, which does not persist long after recovery, while antibodies do. "
The WHO estimated the COVID-19 death rate at 3.4%, while the Stanford study puts it at .14%, about the same as flu which is .1%, or one in a thousand.
If the Stanford study is correct, which is being challenged both for its assumptions, methodology and mathematics, then the predictions of mass deaths and mass hospital overloading were overestimated by a factor of more than 25 and would explain the empty US hospitals at the end of April 2020.
Even if correct, this Stanford study does not mean that there will not be many deaths and many hospitalisations, as in a bad flu season, especially amongst the elderly. It does mean that many of the measures imposed by governments were excessive.
The Stanford report would also mean that there is already greater immunity in the populace.
There is now evidence making a stronger argument for lifting restrictions, but to continue them for those Vulnerable and applying Prevention Measurers like this on this link.
A Danish study published earlier this week using similar methods arrived at the same conclusion.
The low German death rate, currently at 1.6%, is partly explained by a higher rate of testing.
24 April 2020. Random testing of New York supermarket shoppers indicates that 21% of the population may have COVID-19 antibodies. It should be noted that there is no evidence that these tests prove immunity or this is a random sample, but death NY numbers are falling.
This link discusses the reliability of the antibody tests as an indicator.
As against these studies, the New York Times has published figures that show the weekly increase in recorded deaths in most places since the arrival COVID-19. These figures indicate that more people have died outside hospitals from the virus than reported. (The NY figures in the list should be a 29% increase, not 298%. Don't they check their calculations?)
However whatever the true death rate, it does not invalidate PLAN-B, since the total deaths to date are almost insignificant compared to deaths from other causes that we have ignored for years.
3 April 2020 - PLAN-B reduces the economic, personal and social consequences of general lockdown without much effect on COVID-19 mortality!
- Isolation for anyone over 60 or who has any of the underlying conditions described below and their households, the "VULNERABLES", who probably account for well over 90%, possibly 99% of COVID-19 deaths.
- 14+ days or more isolation those with COVID-19 or had recent close contact with a COVID-19 confirmed person.
- Encouraged isolation and healthy behaviors for almost everyone else, the "LESS VULNERABLES".
- Total freedom of work and movement for those who have recovered from COVID-19, the "NOT VULNERABLES" unless we learn that their immunity is short lived.
Dateline 19 April 2020.
PLAN-B is more compelling now that it is becoming apparent that the estimated death rates have been overestimated by a factor of 25 or more.
30 April 2020. The question is whether to lift the restrictions that continue to damage the country piecemeal or all together.
Voluntary restrictions on the VULNERABLES should remain, while the LESS VULNERABLES still follow the precautions, especially wearing shields to prevent the touching of faces.
Maybe we should consider that in the absence of a vaccine, most are going to get the CO-19 virus irrespective of the restrictions. Since most will only show similar effects to the flu, is it not logical to let the virus take its course through the LESS VULNERABLES creating earlier herd immunity, making it safer for the protected VULNERABLES sooner?
Dateline 3 April 2020.
We need brave wartime type leadership that decides to end general lockdowns and unnecessary restrictions on all except for the VULNERABLE, as against destroying the livelihoods and futures of millions.
The WHO has said that the novel coronavirus will be with humankind until we find a vaccine to destroy it forever, so let us get back to work and living normally with taking precautions.
If you believe that this concept has merit, please sign the petition at http://chng.it/T4Ft4y9H and maybe you can be one who makes a difference.
3 April 2020 - PLAN-B protects the "LESS VULNERABLES" and should continue to reduce the mortality numbers without the horrific economic and social consequences of a total lockdown!
We can concentrate our resources on protecting the estimated 99% of COVID-19 deaths which are from the "VULNERABLES" with underlying conditions.
Under PLAN-B there could be a surge in COVID-19 infection amongst the "LESS VULNERABLES", almost all of whom will survive COVID-19, while over 80% will have no or relatively minor reactions, similar to a flu attack.
We should find that now due to the education of the public of not touching your face and wearing a shield to prevent touching, washing hands and maintaining personal space, the virus will not spread so easily.
To understand why you must never touch your face when away from home and why a shield is better protection than a mask click here.
Click here for Eight reasons to end the lockdowns as soon as possible.
The "LESS VULNERABLES" will quickly build immunity to the virus, limiting its spread.
In the meantime until we have a vaccine, more information on vulnerability and or better treatment, the "VULNERABLES" will have to remain in isolation.
Sweden says leaving businesses and schools open might be working
Sweden has stood firm as at 20 April 2020 against pressure to introduce more limits on its citizens.
It has currently asked people over 70 to stay home, banned retirement homes visits, banned gatherings of more than 50 people and closed high schools and universities since mid-March.Sweden tests only probable cases and health workers.
Per Bergfors Nyberg told Good Morning Europe that "the government's response has been focused on trying to limit the spread to elderly people"
"Sweden does not want a general lockdown because they would lose 20-25% of general health care workers, who are so badly needed".
Sweden's apparent high death rate is because there is a meagre COVID-19 testing rate.
Additionally there are complaints that care workers are under-equipped resulting in growing numbers of deaths among the elderly.
Source at 20 April 2020 https://www.businessinsider.co.za/sweden-says-leaving-businesses-open-might-be-working-2020-4?r=US&IR=T
Dateline 21 April 2020.
Sweden has a population of 10.2 million and has 14,777 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1,580 deaths.
Norway has a population of 5.5 million and has 7,156 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 181 deaths.
Finland has a population of 5.5 million and has 4,014 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 98 deaths.
Denmark has a population of 5.8 million and has 7,695 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 370 deaths.
Yet, hospitals in Sweden have not been overwhelmed; figures available from last week show capacity is running at 80 per cent, and worst-case estimates around infection and death rates have simply not transpired.
Unsurprisingly, Sweden has been less damaged economically. Personal spending in Denmark is down 66%, in Finland 70%, compared to only 30% in Sweden. Unemployment claims in Norway are rising four times as fast as those in Sweden.
And then there is the issue of so-called herd immunity. Studies at the weekend suggested between 25-40 per cent of Stockholm may have already had the virus. It could be up to 60 per cent by late May.
Does this mean Sweden will be better able to stem, stop or see less of an impact from the second or third waves when they inevitably come?
Malaria deaths might multiply in the shadow of coronavirus
The number of malaria-related deaths in sub-Saharan Africa could double this year if the Covid-19 pandemic completely disrupts efforts to control the disease, the World Health Organisation warned on Thursday. This will mean 769,000 deaths from malaria alone. It cautioned that disruption in the access to anti-malaria medicines, insecticide-treated bed net distribution and case management could lead to this dramatic spike.
It warned that more people died during the Ebola outbreak from other diseases than from Ebola itself. Daily Maverick 244 April 2020.
Why have most of our leaders chosen an extreme response without all the facts?
“Due to some deeply evolved responses to disease, fears of contagion lead us to become ... tribalistic, and our leaders have been driven to a misplaced 'better safe than sorry logic' and reactions.”
Trying to understand the value of different containment policies, we might question whether our thoughts are really the result of rational reasoning, or whether they might have been shaped by ancient response that evolved millennia before the discovery of germ theory.”
What we now have are options driven by a media frenzy delighting in showing overcrowded hospitals, graves and coffins, provoking ancient fears of death and plaque.
Examples of irrational reasoning are the banning in SA of the sale of hot food such as pies and roast chicken, while the sale of frozen pies and uncooked food is allowed.
What are the underlying conditions?
- Chronic lung disease or moderate to severe asthma.
- Serious heart conditions
- Conditions that can cause a person to be immunocompromised, including cancer treatment, smoking, bone marrow or organ transplantation, immune deficiencies, poorly controlled HIV or AIDS, and prolonged use of corticosteroids and other immune weakening medications.
- Severe obesity (body mass index [BMI] of 40 or higher)
- Chronic kidney disease and who are undergoing dialysis
- Liver disease
There have been suggestions for 3 to 5 days no lockdown, then 8 to 21 days lockdown, but although this may be better for our mental health, this will hardly help the economy. It could lead to massive physical contact from crowding in the no lockdown periods, resulting in a sudden surge of illness that might overrun hospitals a few weeks later.
Additionally, if the "VULNERABLES"
mix in no lock period, the death rates will still be high. -->
Continuing isolation and hoping that the virus will just go away is wishful thinking.
The earlier that we allow the virus to run its course through the "LESS VULNERABLES"
the earlier we will have community protection.
Coronavirus has mutated to become far deadlier in Europe than the milder strain that made its way to the US west coast, Chinese study claims.
Researchers in China have found at least 30 strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Source https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8237849/Coronavirus-mutated-Strains-evolved-far-deadlier-spread-Europe-New-York.html.
A thought too horrible to contemplate is that as more time passes COVID-19 could mutate into a more deadly form
so that the effects would be much worse for those without immunity who get infected later!
An early vaccine would be great but is almost impossible within three months or longer, and the virus is not going away.
3 April 2020. The Effects of Lifting Lockdowns under PLAN-B on Workers
Under PLAN-B the "VULNERABLE" would be treated differently to the "LESS VULNERABLE" by the state and the employers.
In Australia, USA, UK and other countries where there are centralised medical records workers would need a doctor's or official certificate describing their status.
Those who are "LESS VULNERABLE" or "NOT VULNERABLE" and elect not to go to work may not be paid by their employers nor may they be entitled to claim any of the special COVID-19 compensations unless they can show good reason.
They would, however, be able to draw on their holiday and sick pay, as well as standard unemployment insurance.
Under PLAN-B those classed as "VULNERABLE" who cannot work at home would still be able to claim the benefits currently on offer.
Employers who are concerned that opening their businesses and calling their employers to work could leave them open to claims should any get the COVID-19 virus with severe effects on their health. Bless the lawyers! A solution could be that all returning employees sign release forms and legislation passed releasing employers from COVID-19 compensation claims, including where employers do not follow Healthy Behaviours recommendations.
All employees and employers would need to follow Healthy Behaviours recommendations. Employees and employers would be encouraged and able to report employers to authorities who do not follow Healthy Behaviours recommendations after notifying them of their breach(es) and allowing them an opportunity to make rectification.
Changing the present mindset means that schools can reopen, parents can get back to work, and all businesses that wish to can operate.
There have been suggestions that children seldom get COVID-19, but it instead appears that their symptoms are mostly very mild. Most cases of children with COVID-19 were found to have caught the disease at home, not at school.
Of 2,000 children diagnosed with the virus in China, there was one death among the sample - a 14-year-old. Unfortunately, there is no information about any possible underlying health conditions in that case.
A working economy will find it easier to create the resources to help those under lockdown, as well as create the resources to support the ill suffering from COVID-19
The alternative to PLAN-B or similar where there is total lockdown is massive economic disruption throwing people into poverty, homelessness, even hunger, financial and personal depression, possibly leading to civil unrest and barbarism.
Many countries have offered economic aid to their citizens of around 10% of their annual Gross National Product that will be paid for by printing money causing inflation where citizens savings quickly dwindle, heavy taxes and disruption.
Please read the source material from supplied links to better appreciate the reasoning, make up your mind, and if you think that PLAN-B or similar has merit, disseminate these thoughts widely to your political leaders and friends.
These payments would be considerably reduced under the suggested PLAN-B.
Please sign the petition at http://chng.it/T4Ft4y9H in the hope that we can make a difference.
This website www.covid-19-plan-b.com has been set-up to encourage discussion on options of government responses to the coronavirus. You can copy any non-copyright information, on this website, and be kind enough to show the source.
Website conceived late March 2020, by Bernhard Kirschner, Mathematics and Economics lecturer, accountant, computer programmer, systems analyst and 60 years as an entrepreneur specialising in pioneering new business models. I would have to remain in lockdown as a VULNERABLE even under PLAN-B but am horrified at the current suffering caused by indiscriminate lockdowns on workers, the destruction of a lifetime of building small businesses, general emotional stress, and the damage to the future of so many.
Should you have found this web page interesting enough to read this far, then you might want to sign my Change.org petition at http://chng.it/pbrmD7JQPy
Statistics, suggestions and comments, either supporting or contradictory will be welcome at email firstname.lastname@example.org